During this election cycle, many Americans who are rightfully frustrated with the political establishment have taken to supporting billionaire businessman Donald Trump. Trump has garnered increasing support as he has broken the media’s boundaries of acceptable policy proposals and rhetoric, offering many disaffected voters the unapologetic red meat they have long been demanding. In various ways, Trump offers a lot of hope to those who have desperately wanted a no-nonsense, anti-PC strongman to really put an end to weak, incompetent, and corrupt political leadership.
A lot of hope, indeed. But is Trump really all he’s cracked up to be?
For any candidate to merit our support, he/she must be able to withstand a degree of scrutiny. And whatever his merits, that means holding Trump to the same standard that we would hold any other politician asking for our vote. Can we agree on that? Okay, good.
Now, as I’ve done with candidates before, I decided to look into Trump’s record to make sure he checks out. But in so doing, I found some issues that were enough to give me pause. So I’ll summarize them for you and let you make up your own mind.
And don’t worry, I’ll spare you the media’s insufferable PC nonsense and focus on issues that actually matter.
Contents:
1. Illegal immigration
2. Syrian refugees
3. Draw Mohammad contest
4. Liberal healthcare positions
5. Supports affirmative action
6. Eminent domain abuse
7. Supported TARP and Obama’s stimulus
8. Owes success to inheritance & bankruptcy
9. Proposals would increase deficit
10. General election viability
Conclusion
1. Trump’s record on illegal immigration
No one has been tougher on this issue than Donald Trump, right? Well, you might be surprised. Go back to right after Mitt Romney was defeated, and Trump was sounding a completely different tune. Trump criticized Romney for advocating “self-deportation,” buying into the liberal narrative that Republicans should have softened their tone in order to better appeal to Latinos.
As Trump said in a November 2012 Newsmax interview:
“Republicans didn’t have anything going for them with respect to Latinos…[what the Democrats had] is they weren’t mean-spirited about it…they were kind.
“[Romney] had a crazy policy of self-deportation which was maniacal…It sounded as bad as it was, and he lost all of the Latino vote…He lost everybody who is inspired to come into this country.”
In other words, Trump criticized Romney for having a harsh approach to illegal immigration which helped to lose the election for Republicans. Yet now that Trump is campaigning in the GOP primary, he’s decided to go even further than Romney did in this regard.
Question: Did Trump change his mind, or is he just after our votes?
It gets worse. In 2013, Trump hosted a group of DREAMers (young illegal immigrants advocating for their legalization) for a meeting at Trump Tower, and in closing told them that “you’ve convinced me.”
Even as recently as last summer, Trump at one point suggested openness to a “path” of some kind pertaining to the millions of illegal immigrants currently in the US:
“You have 20 million, 30 million, nobody knows what it is. It used to be 11 million. Now, today I hear it’s 11, but I don’t think it’s 11. I actually heard you probably have 30 million. You have to give them a path, and you have to make it possible for them to succeed. You have to do that.”
None of the current Republican candidates claim to support a path to citizenship. Yet voters often worry about their candidates’ past records, and whether or not they will go back on their word. And rightfully so! Given Trump’s dubious record on the issue, this concern should also apply to him.
2. Trump on Syrian refugees
The concern about Trump’s pivot on illegal immigration is that it made me wonder what Trump really believes about the matter. Likewise, there’s also a question to be had about what Trump genuinely thinks should be done about the Syrian refugees. Consider how as recently as last September, Trump expressed to Bill O’Reilly his reluctant support for the admission of Syrian refugees:
O’Reilly: “You know thousands [of migrants] will come to the United States. Now, do you object to migrants who are getting out of the Middle East and North Africa, do you object to them coming to the USA?”
Trump: “I hate the concept of it, but on a humanitarian basis with what’s happening, you have to.”
Curiously, Trump also told O’Reilly that he was “impressed” with Angela Merkel’s decision to allow 800,000 refugees to settle in Germany.
But later that same month, Trump did a full 180 on this issue, insisting that if he becomes president, Syrian refugees in the US will be “going back.” What changed? For one, his poll numbers had dropped. Moreover, Trump may have realized the expediency of the anti-refugee position in the Republican primary, especially considering the border security appeal that he in particular had been tapping into so well.
3. Trump denounced the Draw Mohammad contest
While you may think that no one has been more consistently anti-PC than Donald Trump, some of what he has said pre-campaign left me to doubt whether much of Trump’s recent posturing is contrived to help his political ambitions. Right after the shooting in Garland, TX—before his presidential campaign—Trump took to criticizing Pamela Geller for her Draw Mohammed contest over the fact that it was “taunting” Muslims.
Essentially, Trump thought the whole ordeal to be unwise because it might provoke a violent reaction from Islamic extremists. Does that sound like the unapologetic, say-what-you-want, anti-PC tough guy that Trump has been branding himself as lately?
It’s interesting, because conservative commentator Jonah Goldberg noticed something after getting into a Twitter fight with Trump: He likes to attack political correctness when it’s used against him, but he didn’t mind using PC standards as a bludgeon against Goldberg (hardly a PC guy) when he criticized Trump. Goldberg argues that what Trump actually favors is not free speech, but his own speech. (Trump has been known to use lawsuits to intimidate those who dare to criticize him.) If Goldberg is right, then Trump branding himself as an anti-PC conservative may not be a matter of principle after all, so much as a workaround to the unsavory remarks he’s made over the years as a self-promoting celebrity.
4. Trump supports liberal healthcare policies
Okay, maybe you’ve heard this one before. In 2000, Trump expressed support for a universal, single-payer healthcare system, much like the one in Canada. And in 2007, he praised Hillary Clinton’s healthcare plan, which ended up being very similar to Obamacare.
But what Trump said 15 or 8 years ago isn’t as important as what he’s said more recently. When asked about single payer at the first debate, did Trump say that he changed his mind on the subject? To the contrary, he insisted that single payer works well in Canada and Scotland, but argued that for the US, it could have worked better “in a different age.” Really? Many of us would argue that single payer was never a good idea to begin with!
What’s bad about this is that Scotland doesn’t just have single payer—it has a form of socialized medicine, or government-run hospitals (as opposed to just “single-payer” government insurance). Socialized medicine is the exact problem with the government-run VA hospitals that are failing our veterans. Trump claims he’s going to help the veterans, but how’s he going to do that when he’s one to inadvertently praise Scotland’s system of socialized medicine for “working great”? (Scotland’s system is working badly, by the way.)
And it doesn’t stop there. What does Trump propose we do in the US? One idea he recently proposed is having the government negotiate and fund coverage deals with hospitals on behalf of poor people. Or in other words, part of Obamacare—as in the Medicaid expansion. So Trump wants to repeal Obamacare, and replace it with…something similar? His healthcare ideas even today sound like what you’d get from a liberal Democrat.
5. Trump supports affirmative action
It’s true! And I’m not talking about ancient history. Just last August in an interview with Chuck Todd (go to 26:36), Trump stated that he’s “fine” with affirmative action. And in December, Trump criticized conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia for his remarks against affirmative action in colleges.
A recent survey indicated 74 percent of Trump supporters believe discrimination against whites has become at least as big a problem as discrimination against minorities. That Trump supports affirmative action might be something they’d like to know.
6. Trump instigated eminent domain abuse
Many people—conservatives, libertarians, independents—have been outraged at big businesses seizing private property via eminent domain, and have loathed court decisions like Kelo v. City of New London that have enabled it. Presidents have the power to nominate Supreme Court Justices, so any candidate worthy of our vote should oppose eminent domain abuse.
Not Donald Trump. As a real estate developer, Trump has not only supported eminent domain abuse, he’s actually tried to perpetrate it! In one particularly egregious case, Trump sought to condemn the Atlantic City home of an elderly woman, Vera Coking, so he could pave a limousine parking lot to serve his casino.
Said Coking of Trump: “Heart? He doesn’t have no heart, that man. The only thing he has is what he…worry about himself.”
Fortunately, Trump lost that case. What Trump didn’t lose, however, is his belief that eminent domain for private use is “wonderful.” He once remarked that he agrees “100 percent” with the Supreme Court’s Kelo decision, despite the fact that eminent domain for private use obviously violates the Constitution.
By the way, does Trump really care about the Constitution? I’ve rarely heard him mention it in his speeches.
7. Trump supported TARP and Obama’s stimulus
What originally inspired the Tea Party movement was opposition to expanded government intervention in the economy after the 2008 financial meltdown. First it was the bank bailouts (TARP), and then it was Obama’s $787 billion stimulus plan—which seemed to do little to stimulate the economy. Many of those same Tea Party folks are supporting Trump today. But what was Trump’s opinion of these measures at the time?
Well, for one: Trump supported TARP, describing it as “worth a shot,” “a probable positive,” and “better if it passed.” He thought it was worth rewarding the Wall Street bankers who made the mess? Trump is actually in the minority on this issue, being one of only three main-stage GOP candidates to have supported the bank bailouts. (The other two were Bush and Fiorina.)
Not only that, but in 2009 Trump spoke positively of Obama’s stimulus plan and commended Obama for the speech he gave in its defense. How did that turn out?
Trump claims that his business experience would make him an economic godsend as president. But the economy at large is different than a business. Besides, if Trump really were an economic godsend, shouldn’t he have known that Obama’s stimulus would fail? If he lavished praise on Obama’s idea for how to fix the economy, why should we expect a President Trump to do any better?
8. Trump owes his success to inheritance (and bankruptcy)
Perhaps the key reason why people believe Trump would be good for the economy is his multi-billion dollar fortune as a real estate mogul. But how much credit does Trump really deserve for his fortune?
As it turns out, Trump owes most, if not all, of his success to the simple fact that he had something like a $40 million inheritance from his father (a politically connected real estate developer) in the 1970s, and has been able to grow that at roughly market rates of return over time. If he had invested his entire inheritance in an index fund and done nothing, Trump would have close to the amount of wealth—maybe more—that he currently has.
Donald Trump may be a billionaire worth $3–4 billion (not $10 billion—Trump apparently likes to exaggerate his worth), but he’s not like Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, or Mark Zuckerberg—self-made billionaires who through some great decisions earned spectacular rates of return on their investments. Rather, Trump is an heir who has benefited from circumstances favorable to him—such as the decades-long boom in real estate caused by low interest rates and restrictive zoning laws.
Not to mention, Trump also took advantage of leverage to magnify his returns—gaining on the upside, but almost getting ruined on the downside. He was only able to rescue his fortune by reneging on obligations to investors who had trusted him with their money. Since then, Trump has modified his modus operandi to exploit celebrity self-promotion, increasing his brand value and licensing his name to other real estate developers and on product lines, raking in the royalties with little risk on his part.
Trump’s business experience does not suggest that he would be an economic godsend. It does, however, demonstrate that he is plenty talented in stoking media controversy to build his brand. And it is this trait which he has used to such good effect in his political campaign. But as Trump’s own real estate friend and billionaire Stephen Ross suggested, being the “world’s best promoter” doesn’t mean he would make a good president.
9. Trump’s plans would explode the budget deficit
Perhaps you think Trump’s business experience would at least enable him to balance the federal government’s books and get the country out of debt. But the problem with the budget deficit is one of institutional political incentives, not stupidity as Trump would have you believe.
Despite having no political experience, Trump faces similar incentives to other politicians. He needs votes, too! Sure, he’ll tell you that he’s above the special interests because of his fortune. But this isn’t the case—truth is, he doesn’t have enough liquid assets to afford a presidential election and re-election all on his own. He would most likely need to solicit help from other fundraising sources.
Not only that, but Trump’s proposals thus far suggest that he would actually be the worst of the candidates with respect to the deficit. His tax plan would put us $10 trillion deeper in the hole over ten years—that’s after accounting for positive economic effects! Furthermore, Trump has promised not to reform two of the most costly programs—Social Security and Medicare—whose upcoming obligations threaten the nation’s solvency. And he has committed to making the world’s largest military even bigger, costing more money.
That would leave less than half the budget over which to make cuts to compensate for reducing revenue by nearly one-quarter. That’s far from feasible, especially when you consider how retiring baby boomers will make the budget even tighter in the years ahead.
To solve the problem, voters should support the candidate with the most sober plans, not the most enticing promises. Sadly, it looks like Trump has outdone even the politicians in making promises he knows he can’t keep in order to get elected.
10. Trump is the weakest general election candidate
If the goal is to beat Hillary, you should probably look for another candidate. Head-to-head matchups of GOP candidates against Clinton provide one clear finding: Trump does the worst. Here’s what the Real Clear Politics poll averages look like, as of late December 2015:
Rubio +1.9
Carson -0.3
Christie -0.7
Cruz -0.8
Bush -1.3
Trump -5.5
Whatever your opinion of him, nominating Trump would only increase the likelihood that Hillary Clinton ends up in the White House. And who wants to see that happen?
Conclusion
Trump may seem like a promising new candidate to people who are fed up with politics as usual. I get the frustration—I’m one of those people, too! But reality betrays that Trump isn’t all he’s cracked up to be. Like many politicians, Trump has had the same tendency to change his position on important issues (immigration, refugees) when it’s expedient, and promise more to the voters than he can actually deliver.
On many issues, he’s actually worse than most other Republican candidates: supporting bank bailouts, Obama’s stimulus, liberal healthcare policies, affirmative action, and eminent domain—the last of which Trump has actually sought to exploit for his corporate gain. Not only that, but he has a history of suppressing his critics with lawsuits. How would he handle his critics when he’s in power?
As for the impression that the businessman would be a boon for the economy: The economy is not a business. Trump thought President Obama’s stimulus plan was the right idea, so how would President Trump do any better? Trump may be a billionaire, but he’s not a self-made one. Rather, he grew his multi-million dollar inheritance at roughly market rates of return, so he’s no prodigy.
And to top it off, he’s the nominee who’d most likely lose the White House to Hillary Clinton.
One thing that can be said about Trump is that he’s brilliant at marketing. As voters, we need to seriously consider whether the lofty sales pitch he’s giving us is just too good to be true.
P.S. If not Trump, then who? Personally, I think Rand Paul and Ted Cruz both have respectable track records on the issues and standing up to the political establishment.
The Truth Serum 